Forecasting how market structure will evolve is inherently complex and fraught with unknowns, but one thing is certain: it’s always good to look back and review predictions, even if only to prove Yogi Berra’s old adage that the future ain’t what it used to be.

Traders Magazine caught up with Kevin McPartland, Head of Market Structure and Technology Research at Crisil Coalition Greenwich, for the fourth-annual “look back at a look ahead,” assessing the Top Market Structure Trends to Watch in 2025.

How did the ten trends highlighted at the start of the year play out?

1. ETFs Continue to Expand – As Expected

Kevin: “ETFs definitely played out as expected. We’ve continued to see growth across areas like crypto ETFs and private credit ETFs, beyond just the general increase in assets under management. Looking ahead it’s expected that more mutual funds will begin to offer an ETF share class, growing the market even more. All of that would push this trend even further.”

2. Smarter and Faster Gets Smarter – As Expected

“From research we’ve done on the use of alternative data for investing, not surprisingly, the use of AI and machine learning really plays into that. You’re not hearing a ton about reductions in latency in microseconds and nanoseconds anymore, but you’re certainly hearing a lot more about new methods of quantitative data analysis and strategies.”

3. Matching Buyers and Sellers Gets More Efficient — and More Complex – As Expected

“The SEC’s proposals and discussions this year have encouraged more innovation and more new methods of execution. So, I think we’re continuing to see markets get more efficient, but also more complicated – what we expected.”

4. Upstart Pressure on Incumbents Is Relentless – As Expected

“This feels ever-present these days. The change in regulatory stance has encouraged a lot of new startups and innovation and evolution. It’s non-bank liquidity providers competing with banks, startup trading venues competing with incumbents, and newer trading systems, OMSs and EMSs competing with incumbent platforms. It’s happening everywhere, and it does feel like we’re still in a really strong period of innovation.”

5. Regulation Becomes More Unpredictable – As Expected

“Going into the year, it was pretty unpredictable — we didn’t know what we were going to get. In the end, that’s exactly what happened. Now that we’re at the end of the year, it’s become clearer what we can expect. Nobody really knows what the final rules will look like or what will change, but the sentiment feels well understood by the market at this point.”

6. Derivatives Innovation Accelerates – As Expected

“Prediction markets were obviously a headline for derivatives this year, along with digital assets. Credit futures have also seen volume and open interest grow. Our research there suggests the market is finally ready for these products.”

7. Market Data Supply and Demand Remains Insatiable – As Expected

“We’ve done an annual study the last couple of years, and again we found it was nearly 70% of the buy side that said they expect to increase their market data budgets, typically by about one to five percent. So, spending does just keep going up. People keep spending and demanding more every year — more demand for real-time data, more demand for alternative data, data across the board”

8. Required Repo Clearing Drives Innovation and Competition – Less than Expected

“The mandate dates were delayed by the SEC, which I think was the right move in the end, to give the industry more time. That allowed everybody to step back, slow down a little bit, and make sure that all the mechanical issues were solved before moving forward full speed. If you look at the major electronic trading platforms for repo — CME BrokerTec, GLMX and Tradeweb — they all showed year-over-year increases in repo volume, so there is definitely movement forward there. But people probably slowed down a bit when it came to making major changes to their workflow as the clearing situation got sorted out.”

9. TradFi–DeFi Convergence Accelerates – More than Expected

“JP Morgan just launched a new money market fund on Ethereum, which is a pretty good case in point. That trend really moved fast this year, and it does feel like things progressed more quickly than expected.”

10. Investing in Ops and Compliance Remains a Priority – Less than Expected

“There is definitely continued focus on automation, and a lot of discussion around how Gen AI can help in some of those tasks, but it’s still early. There’s a longer-term element here, especially when you think about things like T+0, which require a lot of investment in operations and compliance. It’s happening, but it’s more of a slow burn.”

This article first appeared as FLASH FRIDAY on Traders Magazine, a Markets Media Group publication. FLASH FRIDAY is a weekly content series looking at the past, present and future of capital markets trading and technology, sponsored by Instinet, a Nomura company.