12.13.2011

Laying In Wait

12.13.2011

Traders continue to watch U.S. equities gravitate toward a bull market, but choppiness remains as Europe’s situation continues to move on unresolved.

Despite the fear over Europe, the effect it has had on equities remains minimal. An obvious gauge has been the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), which has remained below the key 30 point level for some time now. The VIX has been trading in the 24 to 25 point range this week, signaling no imminent signs of a market drop.

Yet the euro continues to weaken against other currencies including the U.S. dollar. Credit default swap premiums on European sovereign debt remain relatively high as do bond yields. It appears that Europe is crumbling, albeit very slowly and at a pace investors are comfortable with.

The Federal Reserve also helped to alleviate fears on Tuesday with a statement saying that interest rates would remain unchanged and that the economy would take a prolonged period of time to recover. Unemployment in the United States will continue to decrease over the next year, albeit slowly.

Oil continues to rise with tensions mounting in the Middle East. The $100 a barrel mark will be a constant reminder of price in weeks to come. All traders can essentially do is wait and see who makes the next move in the game of global markets.

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