Line In The Sand


Despite unresolved issues related to the collapse of MF Global and a twist in the plot of the European debt crisis, traders appear to be remain bullish and continue to push forward.

There are two key factors at hand that indicate that equity traders aren’t ready to dismiss the bullish sentiment that exists in the market. The first is that the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) hovers right at the key 30 point mark. Many traders are of the consensus that when the VIX is at 30 or below, fear has begun to subside as well as market volatility.

Second, the S&P 500 continues to hold a key level and line in the sand: 1251. On Monday, the index closed the day up nearly 8 points at 1261. As long as this level holds, the market should continue to buy up according to some proprietary traders who wished to remain anonymous.

But the troubles that still exist in Europe may be too big to go unnoticed. With Greek’s prime minister resigning and austerity measures put on hold, coupled with the fiscal dreariness in Italy, credit default swap premiums continue to increase in addition to higher yields on sovereign debt.

“For the past decade, several governments in the European Union, including Greece and Italy have become reliant on the economic framework of their stronger neighbors (especially Germany),” William Yeack, managing director at Golden Archer Investments, told Markets Media. “Although the EU has been lauded as one of the great social experiments of the late 20th century, the recent crisis demonstrates the potential weaknesses of this system.”

As far as Europe’s problems go, it all boils down to the fact that until these countries can change the way the act and behave, nothing will ever become fixed.

“If the European Union wishes to compete against the United States as a single economic entity, they need to make the leap of faith and fully commit to the cause,” said Yeack. “Otherwise, the current incarnation might very well tear the peace that has been built over the last 100 years apart.”

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