11.28.2011

Market Rallies Short Lived

11.28.2011

“Don’t believe the hype,” notes one specialist on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Monday’s monster rally after the past week and a half of downturn was welcomed by many market participants as the S&P 500 climbed higher, approaching the pivotal 1201 level.

But those expecting a trend to the upside to continue throughout the week are true optimists who still have not processed the catastrophe that exists in Europe and within the government of the United States.

Volatility continues to permeate the market, but has begun to fade since last week. The CBOE Volatility Index remains above 30 but significant buying in the December 40 puts shows people don’t expect a huge swing or trend reversal in the market.

“The market continues to be erratic and volatile,” noted another specialist at the NYSE. “With even the slightest hint of positive news out of Europe, the market responds with a 300 point jump on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.”

“Until these days become more steady and realistic the individual investor will continue to sit off to the side and wait. I don’t expect any money on the retail side to come back to the market until late first quarter 2012,” he added.

Right now, both short-term traders and long-term investors are anxiously awaiting a stable solution to the crisis in Europe and compromise in Congress. When both those issues come to pass, the bull market is expected to return in full.

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