Trading the Week: Easing into 2H
The markets should saunter into the second half of the year as July markets are typically light in volume and have muted moves throughout the month, especially during the first week.
However, volatility returned to the market on Thursday as investors pared bet and the S&P 500 had its largest decline in the past six weeks. Volumes also finished up the week higher than average.
“With the holiday-shortened week — half-day Monday and closed on Tuesday — we expected an uptick this week in volumes as many will take the entire week off,” Larry Peruzzi, managing director International Trading at Mischler Financial Group, told Markets Media.
The second half of the week will witness more information-gathering while The Street awaits second-quarter earning announcements to roll out later in the month,
Highlighting next week will be FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday, according to Peruzzi. “With the growing confusion regarding global central bank policy, the minutes should see increased scrutiny,” he added.
David Rosenberg, an economist at Gluskin Scheff, expects that the Fed’s preoccupation with inflation usually peaks as it becomes yesterday’s news, according to Business Insider.
“It is almost comical to read the old FOMC minutes and see how much talk there is about inflation just as the recession the Fed never sees is about to start,” he wrote in a note to clients. “The Fed practically went into each recession of the past four decades — the ones in 1970, 1973, 1980, 1981, 1990, 2001 and 2008 — without ever seeing it coming, even though it had already arrived.”
From political and policy perspective, Peruzzi sees the actions of the Trump Administration and Congress as a wild card capable of producing fireworks.
“Healthcare and travel ban will perk investors interest, but we don’t expect much to happen,” he noted.
|This Week’s U.S. Economic Indicators of Interest:|
|Monday||Motor Vehicle Sales
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
PMI Manufacturing Index
ISM Manufacturing Index
4-Week Bill Auction
3-Month Bill Auction
6-Month Bill Auction
NYSE Early Close
SIFMA Rec. Early Close
|Wednesday||Bank Reserve Settlement
MBA Mortgage Applications
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
Gallup US ECI
|Thursday||Weekly Bill Settlement
Chain Store Sales
Challenger Job-Cut Report
ADP Employment Report
Gallup Good Jobs Rate
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
PMI Services Index
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
EIA Natural Gas Report
EIA Petroleum Status Report
3-Month Bill Announcement
6-Month Bill Announcement
3-Yr Note Announcement
10-Yr Note Announcement
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
Market sentiment remains strong as traders see little near-term risk.
Traders continue to grapple with economic, interest rate and geopolitical concerns.
Stocks cling to higher levels while fixed-income securities slide.
Stocks continue to drift higher amid dearth of selling and low volatility.
Storms could cloud traders' appetites and FOMC rate hike resolve.