Wisdom of the Crowd – When the Composite Performs Better than Average (Part 1)
In the United States, the month of March has become synonymous with the NCAA basketball college tournament. Regardless of whether people are die-hard fans or have never stepped foot on a basketball court, people fill in their tournament brackets all-knowing that a perfect bracket is almost as unachievable as the Hope Diamond. That kind of uncertainty is part of the expectation and the thrill of the tournament. But what if people had the ability to structure their picks after viewing the market’s aggregate expectations for the tournament? No one could truly know which teams will pull through, but at least the decision would be more informed of market expectations.