03.06.2015

OPINION: Real-Deal Rate Rise?

03.06.2015
Terry Flanagan

It looks like interest rates are finally headed higher. After a couple false starts over the past few years — most notably a four-month stretch in 2013 that saw the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climb from 1.7% to 3%, before receding — today’s banner jobs headline may well force the Fed to move sooner rather than later.

The 10-year yield rose 13 basis points to 2.24% as of midday, and the benchmark is up from 1.67% just five weeks ago.

I’m not here to predict rates. I’m an editor, not an interest-rate strategist. I can offer a prediction, but I don’t think it would be any better than others. (Okay, just for fun, I predict the 10-year yield will be 2.45% at mid-year, 3.1% at year-end 2015, and 3.2% at year-end 2016.)

Rather, I’m here to opine that rising interest rates will be a boon to many of the market operators, trade handlers, and technology vendors that are near and dear to the heart of Markets Media.

It doesn’t take rocket science to reach this conclusion. Rising interest rates would touch off volatility across markets, which would in turn create more need to hedge and more opportunities to speculate. That translates into more trading volumes, which lifts all boats operating in the secondary market.

The most direct boon can be expected in fixed-income markets, specifically the brokerage desks and electronic platforms that facilitate the trading of fixed-income securities. But many across Wall Street are licking their chops at the prospect of rising rates and how that will reverberate across asset classes.

Terry Duffy, executive chairman and president of futures powerhouse CME Group, has said a more ‘normalized’ interest-rate environment would be good for the economy — and presumably for CME volumes. Gary Katz, chief executive officer of options-exchange operator International Securities Exchange, said rising rates will bring not only volatility, but also increased trading volume as more companies opt for equity financing over debt financing. And just last night, folks at the ITG media/analyst dinner I attended noted that higher rates will help trading, brokerage and technology firms such as ITG, KCG and Virtu.

To be sure, there’s no free lunch. Rising interest rates may also cause market dislocations, whose negative effects could more than offset the gains from trading-volume increases. But if rates rise in a controlled way, it might hit a sweet spot that Wall Street hasn’t seen in a number of years.

 

Asset owners are investing heavily in data, from AI to ESG to real-time tools.
What’s the top priority for the data suite? 👇

#AssetOwners #FinTech #AI #ESG #Data

At #TradeTechFX Barcelona this week, LMAX Group Managing Director of Digital Assets, Jenna Wright, joins @TheBondDESK @marketsmedia to discuss how FX desks are adapting to the rise of digital assets.

She’ll explore market convergence, regulation and the investor opportunities…

Deutsche Börse’s Crypto Finance launches AnchorNote, letting institutions post crypto collateral off-exchange while keeping assets in custody. A step toward safer, more efficient digital asset trading. #Crypto #DigitalAssets

David Martin, CEO of the derivatives business at Singapore-based digital asset exchange AsiaNext, said the next stage of the industry is about the collision of traditional finance (TradFi) and crypto, and “capital efficiency will win the game."

#Crypto

Load More

Related articles

We're Enhancing Your Experience with Smart Technology

We've updated our Terms & Conditions and Privacy Policy to introduce AI tools that will personalize your content, improve our market analysis, and deliver more relevant insights.These changes take effect on Aug 25, 2025.
Your data remains protected—we're simply using smart technology to serve you better. [Review Full Terms] | [Review Privacy Policy] By continuing to use our services after Aug 25, 2025, you agree to these updates.

Close the CTA