09.10.2026

Coinbase Prediction Markets are Growing Fast

09.10.2026
Shanny Basar
Coinbase Prediction Markets are Growing Fast

Prediction markets are one of the fastest-growing revenue products of all time at Coinbase according to Alesia Haas, chief financial officer of the digital asset exchange and infrastructure group.

She spoke at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia & Technology Conference on 9 September 2026 in San Francisco alongside president and chief operating officer Emilie Choi. Prediction markets crossed $100m of annual run rate revenue in the second quarter of this year, which was double the revenue from the launch in the previous quarter.

“We are just are getting started with prediction markets, but we have seen the ability to take a product, enter the market and see scaling occur,” Haas added.

She continued that Coinbase lets customers express views on weather, politics and the American football season is about to start. Haas said there is a lot of momentum in prediction markets and Coinbase has the ability to grow this product.

“We are continuing to expand the types of contracts so that is the huge growth vector,” she added. “It is interesting to think of a future when there is deep participation and liquidity and these become meaningful markets where investors can think about expressing views on corporate KPIs [key performance indicators] around earnings different from the overall stock price.”

Source: Coinbase

Everything Exchange

Coinbase’s strategy is to become the ‘everything exchange’, one place where customers can trade any asset at any time. To become an everything exchange Coinbase has diversified from spot crypto trading into derivatives, equities, and prediction markets.

Haas said: “We now have four pillars of trading products to offer to our retail customers and we are starting to see some traction.”

She highlighted that when Coinbase went public in 2021 it enabled spot crypto trading for retail and institutional customers.  Over the last five years Coinbase has expanded the number of assets that customers can trade, deepened its institutional business and built out an infrastructure business, which it makes available to other companies.

When Coinbase went public, Bitcoin spot trading was over 50% of total revenue and that has fallen to 10%, according to Haas. In addition, Coinbase custodies approximately 12% of global onchain assets.

Emilie Choi, Coinbase

Choi said: “Customers want to be able to trade where their assets reside so I think that’s a huge moat for us.”

Subscription services revenue is now $2.5bn on an annualized basis, compared to less than 5% of total revenue in 2021, which Haas said was due to stablecoins increasingly being used for payments and other forms of utility.

“Stablecoins have seen tremendous product market fit over the last five years and huge volume in terms of payments, trading and settlement,” Haas added. “That concept of tokenizing a U.S. dollar has opened up the doors to tokenizing many other assets.”

Over the past year traditional finance institutions have entered the digital asset space and a number of digital asset companies have gone public, such as tokenization platform Securitize and digital asset investment manager CoinShares.

Choi described this as validation of Coinbase’s strategy to get into the digital assets early 13 years ago. She compared this strategy to Amazon, which was a digital native competing in e-commerce against firms with legacy systems and architecture.

“We invested so early that I think we have a unique proprietary advantage in terms of thinking about the way that the systems are built out and the type of talent that we want to hire,” Choi added. “So we feel really good about the space as it evolves.”

Source: Coinbase

Derivatives

Coinbase has launched derivatives, which reached an all-time high in market share in the second quarter of this year according to Choi.

In August 2025 Coinbase completed its acquisition of Deribit, the crypto options exchange, which Choi said helped Coinbase become the number one crypto options exchange in the world. One year  later Coinbase said it was rolling out a new matching engine for derivatives.

Coinbase also secured a no-action relief letter from the U.S Commodity and Futures Trading Commission which will allow U.S. customers to trade global perpetual futures. Choi said this was the first time that U.S. customers can access global perpetuals in compliance with U.S regulations.

‘“They have all the access to our other products and liquidity pools, so it is novel and very compelling,” Choi added. “We were super excited that the CFTC was willing to move forward with this as it was a big unlock for our customers.”

Haas said the CFTC’s decision meant U.S. customers can get the best price by trading on the deepest global liquid order books, rather than fragmenting liquidity.

“The largest global market for crypto has been trading perpetual futures and we are going to harmonize liquidity and grow that product in the U.S.,” added Haas. “We reached an all-time high in trading volume market share, but more importantly, we are gaining new users to our platform with this product.”

Equities

Coinbase launched 24/5 stock and ETF trading for all users in the U.S. in February 2026, following a limited initial rollout in December last year.

In August the year Coinbase received regulatory approval to establish its international tokenization hub in ADGM, the international financial centre of Abu Dhabi. Subsequently the firm launched tokenized versions of Apple, Nvidia, Meta and Alphabet under its new Abu Dhabi framework on its Base blockchain.

Alesia Haas, Coinbase

Haas said: “The analogy that we use is that the tokenized security is much like a tokenized U.S. dollar.”

She gave the example of U.S dollars being available on technology stacks including wires, checking accounts and prepaid cards. Securities have also moved from certificates to digital representations, and now onchain.

“We think that having the place where you can hold more of your assets, building on the layers of cross-margin, providing more capital efficiency and unifying on one technology stack is where we are unique and really differentiated,” Haas added.

Choi continued that there might be a misconception that Coinbase is just going after a piece of the crypto pie.

“Crypto is completely disrupting that system and we are going after all of it,” said Choi. “We are disrupting the entire financial system and that is a $50 trillion dollar total addressable market. We have very big ambitions.”

Regulation

Choi said: “We are very excited about the possibility of the Clarity Act getting passed by the U.S. Senate next week.

Even if the Clarity Act is not passed, Coinbase believes that innovation exemptions from U.S regulators is enough to launch new products. She added: “In general, we view Clarity as an accelerant.”

Coinbase has preliminary approval for an OCC bank charter and in the European Union Coinbase has received a MICA regulatory license.

“It’s just this whole confluence of great things that are pushing the whole ecosystem forward,” Choi added.

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